Threat Tactical assessment
Threat Tactical assessment
In light of the global rise in lethality and number of terrorist attacks, it has caused imperativeness among private citizens, states and nations to engage in strategic vision that recognizes, preparation for and prevention of such events. The threat assessment provides policies which are subjective to guide and recommend the need to improve international collaboration and response to recover terrorist as a global threat. Over the past few decades, Islamic movements have increased, and they have led to the birth of many terrorist groups listed as international terrorist organizations. However, some terrorist organizations have kept a low profile due to military and insurgent activities which engage operations in eradicating terrorism. The nature of attacks range depending on the terrorist group coverage areas and the method of attacks used. The most common methods used by terrorist organizations to attack include use of suicide bombs, explosives, mass shooting and kidnapping of citizens of high profile people of the target groups.[1] The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Chechen rebels are on of high profile terrorist organizations which are connected to multiple incidences of attacks globally. The two terrorist organizations use explosive and suicide bombing as the main method of attacks[2]. They have caused the death of many people, destruction of properties and instabilities among governments.
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
The IMU is located at Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The IMU was found by Juma Namangani, a Soviet war veteran in Afghanistan in 2001. IMU recruit Uzbeks ethnic group and among economically challenged as well as religiously persecuted youths from Fergana valley. The movement has multiple funding sources which including Pakistan inter-services intelligence which works closely with Taliban’s.[3] Also, IMU generates income through criminal activities which includes smuggling of drugs and has strong connections to Al-Qaida which finances the terrorist organization. IMU is connected to major attacks across the world. In 1999, the IMU militants detonated vehicle-borne explosives at Uzbekistan that killed more than 16 people and caused over 120 injuries. In 2000, the IMU kidnapped and held for American hostages at Karu-Su valley.[4] In the year 2004, the IMU used female bombers targeting Uzbek security forces at Tashkent and killed over ten police officers through suicide bombs. In 2011, the IMU used a suicide bomber in killing more than 19 people at a funeral of one of Afghan top government official. In 2012, the IMU militants attacked a prison at Bannu in Pakistan and freed more than 400 prisoners. The most recent attack was conducted in the year 2014 where the IMU carried two attacks at a concert and Jinnah International Airport in Pakistan. The incidence led to the death of more than 36 people and injured more than 18 other[5]. The IMU trace ideologies from the radical interpretation of Pan-Islamism laws which advocated for unifying Muslims under caliphate sharia laws. The main objective of IMU was to overthrow Uzbekistan government and establish an Islamic state governed by sharia laws. During the attack, IMU uses various tactics which include kidnappings, bombings, low-intensity bombings, vehicle-borne explosives, and firearms attacks. Based on the nature of attacks, IMU is likely to conduct an attack at a concert to be held at community Arena.
Chechen Profile
A Chechen terrorist organization driven by nationalism and focus on training and spreading the ideologies of inspirations based on Islamic organizations. Chechen is a notorious terrorist group formed at the Soviet Socialist Republic in the year 1934. Chechen gained popularity in Russia through conducting multiple seizures for hostages and attacking institutions such as hospitals to address their nationalist ideas. In 1996, Chechen rebels conducted a successful attack at Grozny, and this caused the signing of ceasefire among military leaders and Chechen leaders. In 1998, Chechen kidnapped Valentin a presidential representative and held him hostage for six months.[6] In 1999, Chechen fighters crashed with Russian troops carrying out incursions at Dagestan. In the same year, the terrorist group conducted a series of bombings during the launch of the Chechen war. In 2002, Chechen attacked a theatre at Moscow and held 800 people hostage and killed more than 120 people. In 2011, Chechen released a bomb at Domodedovo airport killing dozens of people while others sustained injuries. In 2012, Chechen alongside Kadyrov’s forces arrested and murdered Russian opposition leaders at Boris. Based on the nature of the attacks conducted by the Chechen terrorist group, the attacks are centred on government as a desire for nationalism drives the terrorist movement. Thus, Chechen is likely to conduct an attack on government officials through kidnapping and murder and also holding of people as hostages with the aim of attaining nationalism.
Based on the profile of IMU and Chechen, the IMU is more oriented on religious perspective in the conduct of terrorist activities. The IMU is formed with the motive of uniting Muslims under calibrate sharia laws.[7] Thus, religious institutions tend to the area of high target for IMU as they focus on eliminating other religious groups to strengthen Islamic.[8] The threat vector likely to be used by IMU includes an attack of mass people mainly at concerts, church or holding hostage of people. The vulnerabilities in securing places with mass people pose threat possibility by the IMU. Also, insufficient intelligence creates vulnerability for suicide bombing by the IMU. The most likely type of attack being planned by the IMU is a suicide bombing at a concert which is aimed at killing more than 200 people and many sustaining injuries.[9] On the other hand, the Chechen conduct terrorist attacks through holding top government officials hostages and murdering them. The threat vector used by Chechen is attacking places where politician converge. The likely vulnerability relevant to Chechen is lack of protection to government officials.
In case of a successful attack by either terrorist group, outcome includes the mass death of people and many sustaining injuries. Another outcome is the destruction of property in case an explosion is used during the attack.[10] The first responders need to understand the nature of the attack before responding. If the IMU use explosive or suicide bombing at a concert, the responders need to use equipment that protects them and casualties from sustaining more injuries. If the Chechen government leaders into hostage, the first responders need to apply military tactics to kill the attackers but not harm the hostages.
Bibliography
Abadie, Alberto. “Poverty, political freedom, and the roots of terrorism.” American Economic Review, vol. 96, no. 2, 2006, 50-56.
Burgess, Mark. “In the Spotlight: Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).” Terrorism Project, Center for Defense Information, 2002.
Chivers, C. J., and Steven Lee Myers. “Chechen Rebels Mainly Driven by Nationalism.” New York Times, vol. 12, 2004.
Drakos, Konstantinos, and Andreas Gofas. “In search of the average transnational terrorist attack venue.” Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 17, no. 02, 2006, 73-93.
Mann, Poonam. “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Will it strike back?” Strategic Analysis, vol. 26, no. 2, 2002, 294-304.
Moore, Cerwyn, and Paul Tumelty. “Assessing Unholy Alliances in Chechnya: From Communism and Nationalism to Islamism and Salafism.” In Muslims and Communists in the Post-Transition States, pp. 119-142. Routledge, 2014.
Pape, Robert A., Lindsey O’Rourke, and Jenna McDermit. “What Makes Chechen Women So Dangerous?” New York Times, vol. 30, 2010.
Rotar, Igor. “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: a resurgent IMU?” The Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor, vol. 1, no. 8, 2003.
Russell, John. “Kadyrov’s Chechnya—Template, Test or Trouble for Russia’s Regional Policy?” Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 63, no. 3, 2011, 509-528.
Stenersen, Anne. “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan’s Role in Attacks in Pakistan.” Combating Terrorism Center, 2014.
1. Alberto Abadie, “Poverty, political freedom, and the roots of terrorism.” American Economic Review, vol. 96, no. 2, 2006, 50.
2. Mark Burgess, “In the Spotlight: Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).” Terrorism Project, Center for Defense Information, 2002.
3. Chivers, C. J., and Steven Lee Myers, “Chechen Rebels Mainly Driven by Nationalism,” New York Times, vol. 12, 2004.
4. Konstantinos Drakos and Andreas Gofas, “In search of the average transnational terrorist attack venue,” Defense and Peace Economics, vol. 17, no. 02, 2006, 73.
5. Poonam Mann, “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Will it strike back?” Strategic Analysis, vol. 26, no. 2, 2002, 294.
6. Cerwyn Moore and Paul Tumelty, “Assessing Unholy Alliances in Chechnya: From Communism and Nationalism to Islamism and Salafism,” In Muslims and Communists in the Post-Transition States, pp. 119-142. Routledge, 2014.
7. John Russell, “Kadyrov’s Chechnya—Template, Test or Trouble for Russia’s Regional Policy?” Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 63, no. 3, 2011, 509.
9. Igor Rotar, “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: a resurgent IMU?” The Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor, vol. 1, no. 8, 2003.
10. Anne Stenersen, “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan’s Role in Attacks in Pakistan,” Combating Terrorism Center, 2014.
